Americans overestimate disease, danger risk

NEW YORK, Jan 26 (Reuters Health) -- Most people in the US greatly overestimate their chances of being seriously injured in a car accident or being diagnosed with a potentially life-threatening illness, such as breast or prostate cancer, a survey suggests.

For example, most people surveyed believe they have a 50% chance of being injured in a serious accident, when the actual lifetime risk of this occurring is about 1 in 20, or 5%.

The telephone survey of 1,013 adults was designed by Dr. John Graham of the Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, and conducted by Louis Harris and Associates.

Men and women rate their risk of developing prostate or breast cancer at more than 40%, when in fact, the risk is much lower -- around 10%. The same is true for heart attack, lung cancer, diabetes, stroke, and HIV infection.

The actual risk of having a heart attack is 40% for men and about 10% for women, although both men and women estimate their risk at 50%. The public estimates their stroke risk at 45%, their lung cancer risk at 35%, and their diabetes risk at 37%, when in truth, the chances of developing any of those conditions is 20% or less.

Even though most people say their risk of contracting HIV is very low, around 1.1 chances in 10, the reality is even lower, less than 1 in 20.

Only in terms of domestic violence do most people have an accurate assessment of their risk. Those surveyed felt they had a 1 to 2 chance out of 10 of this occurring and in fact the average risk was 1.3 out of 10.

"Americans are living longer and healthier lives than ever before," said Graham in a statement issued by Harris Poll. "Yet many people greatly overestimate their chances of being hurt or killed by many diseases and trauma."