From "El Nino and Global Warming: What's the Connection?" the UCAR (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Quarterly, Winter 1997:

On June 3, 1998, the activist public relations firm Fenton Communications and its cohort organization Environmental Media Services hosted a press breakfast in Washington, D.C., to try to make the case that global warming has already brought on more severe El Nino events and severe weather and will lead to epidemics of tropical disease in developed countries, such as the United States. Vice President Albert Gore repeated this theme at his own press briefing a few days later.

Showcased at the Fenton/EMS event were three scientists: Kevin Trenberth, chief of the Climate Analysis section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and a well-known proponent of greenhouse theory; David Easterling, research meteorologist with the National Climatic Data Center; and Joan Rose, professor of water pollution microbiology at the University of South Florida.

What follows is coverage of that press briefing from the Dow Jones News Service and links to articles and article summaries that give a different point of view. Note that the "new" research referred to in the last paragraph of the Dow Jones Wire story has not yet been published; other scientists are not yet able to offer a critique.

Copyright 1998 Dow Jones News Wire
"US Scientists Link El Nino, Flooding To Global Climate Change"
by Bryan Lee
June 3, 1998

WASHINGTON -- The increasing frequency of Pacific Ocean El Nino occurrences and annual increases in high-intensity precipitation events likely are signaling the onset of global climate change, scientists said Wednesday.

"When it rains, it pours, much more now than in the past," said Kevin Trenberth, chief of the Climate Analysis Section at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Atmospheric moisture levels have increased 10% over the last two decades, Trenberth said.

Precipitation worldwide has risen steadily throughout the 20th century, with increases ranging from 5% to 20% depending on the latitude, said David Easterling, research meteorologist at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climate Data Center in Asheville, N.C.

This has made more likely such extreme events as 1993's catastrophic flooding in the upper Mississippi River valley and three other major floods in the last year affecting California, and the Red River and Ohio River valley regions, Easterling said.

Easterling cited recent research finding one-day high-intensity precipitation - as well as multi-day high-intensity precipitation events leading to regional flooding - have steadily increased over the last six decades at the rate of 3% annually.

Also, the number of days where the temperature dips below freezing has decreased by two days per decade, averaged over the continental U.S., since 1948, Easterling reported. The strongest increase in the number of days above freezing is seen in the springtime, he added.

Trenberth cited increasing evidence suggesting global climate change is playing a role in the increasing frequency of El Nino events that disrupt global weather patterns.

Since 1976, there have been more El Nino events than would be expected historically. And the 1997-1998 occurrence, which now appears to be waning, marked the most significant of the Pacific Ocean warming events since the largest, which was recorded in 1982-1983, Trenberth said.

And the 1990-1995 period saw a protracted warming of the Pacific when the cycle typically would produce an oceanic cooling event, known as "La Nina."

He noted that a recent dramatic drop in Pacific water temperatures at the equator in recent weeks likely signals the end of the extreme 1997-1998 El Nino warming phenomenon and the onset of a counter-cyclical La Nina cooling period.

If so, that would mark the first major La Nina event since 1988-1989, which brought a spring drought to North America, Trenberth said.

While warm El Nino spots persist in areas of the Pacific, at the equator the water has been cooling rapidly, he said.

And if history is any guide, then this Pacific Ocean cooling will pave the way for a "bonanza hurricane season" in the Atlantic, such as occurred in 1995 when the last protracted El Nino warming finally dissipated, he said.

"Everything is ripe and ready for these hurricanes to likely come back," Trenberth said, suggesting the National Hurricane Center's prediction for this year's Atlantic storm season underestimates the number and severity of storms likely to occur by not taking the Pacific cooling into account.

Trenberth rebutted those who question scientific predictions of massive climate change by noting that the bulk of the scientifically measured global warming occurred in the first part of this century.

"The last 10 to 15 years really stand out," he said. "It's only in recent times that we've seen the signal (of climate change) emerge."

Trenberth and Easterling spoke at a press briefing Wednesday to discuss the peer-reviewed findings of research papers they will soon publish in scientific journals. The event was organized by Environmental Media Services, a non-profit group that works to publicize environmental information.

For different views, see:
Apocalypse Not
Floods as Usual
Article Summaries
Letters to The Lancet