Scientific Papers for Temperature Trends [Modeled v. Observed]
Temperature Trends |
Modeled v. Observed |
Lack of Consistency Between Modeled and Observed Temperature Trends
11-Jun-11
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S Fred Singer (USA) |
Abstract: The US Climate Change Science Program [CCSP, 2006] reported, and Douglass et
al. [2007] and NIPCC [2008] confirmed, a potentially serious inconsistency
between modeled and observed trends in tropical surface and tropospheric
temperatures. However, Santer et al. [2008: hereafter Santer], though sharing
several co-authors with CCSP [2006], offered new observational estimates of
[tropical] surface and tropospheric temperature trends, concluding that there is
no longer a serious discrepancy between modelled and observed trends. Santers
key graph [shown here as Fig. 5] misleadingly suggests an overlap between
observations and modeled trends. His new observational estimates conflict with
satellite data. His modeled trends are an artifact, merely reflecting chaotic and
structural model uncertainties that had been overlooked. Thus the conclusion of
consistency is not supportable and accordingly does not validate model-derived
projections of dangerous anthropogenic global warming (AGW).
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